Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
